Markets Battle Between Greed and Fear Continues

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STATE OF THE MARKETS

Vaccine hopes return to the driver seat. Major indices rebounded on Thursday but on a downward trend with lower highs for the past 4 days, signaling consolidation and profit taking as holidays approach in the next few weeks. US treasuries continue to be bid on safety demands with the 10Y benchmark continue to edge lower and closed below the 0.85% mark.

In a mixed reaction, crude oil futures struggled higher above $42/barrel in early Friday trading, on the hope of vaccine deliveries before Christmas. On another note, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin dropped a bombshell contradicting Feds Jerome Powell that emergency funding will end by Dec 31. Gold continue to edge lower below $1,880/oz but remains well bid above $1,850.

In the FX space, long-term accounts remain unchanged while medium-term adopted more optimism as Kiwi and Sterling passed Yen on demand. Profit taking on the short-term accounts pushed Aussie and Kiwi to the sell side while Euro and Swiss took the driver seat.

 


G8 CURRENCIES SENTIMENTS

ST EUR CHF USD CAD JPY GBP NZD AUD ST
MT NZD GBP JPY AUD CAD EUR CHF USD MT
LT NZD AUD GBP JPY CAD EUR USD CHF LT
** ST refers to Short-Term which is daily turnover, MT is Medium Term which is 
weekly
and LT refers to Long-Term which is monthly turnover.

WALL ST MOST ACTIVE

TICKER LAST PRICE

% CHANGE

VOLUME 90 DAYS AVG
NIO 48.45 +7.52 233,267.1K 137,975.6K
FCEL 5.36 +5.10 210,677.5K 21,667.5K
GE 9.66 -0.72 86,746.5K 100,721.1K
SOLO 9.64 +39.51 90,364.0K 9,851.9K
AAPL 118.64 +0.52 73,984.9K 157,362.7K
M 9.18 +2.11 64,611.1K 24,998.8K
TSLA 499.27 +2.60 62,279.6K 61,380.8K
AAL 12.79 +0.39 58,524.7K 66,769.2K
PLTR 18.98 +6.03 56,061.9K 50,667.8K
F 8.82 0.00 56,570.0K 63,987.3K
** % Change here refer to price vs previous day price

WALL ST TOP FLOWS

TICKER LAST PRICE

VOLUME

% CHANGE FUNDS FLOW $
TSLA 499.27 62,279.6K +86.00 31,094.3M
NIO 48.45 233,267.1K -2.66 11,301.8M
AMZN 3,117.02 3,010.2K -41.62 9,382.9M
AAPL 118.64 73,984.9K -35.06 8,777.6M
NVDA 537.61 14,148.3K +45.71 7,606.3M
BA 205.67 34,236.1K +38.27 7,041.3M
BABA 259.89 20,752.8K -19.95 5,393.5M
MSFT 212.42 24,792.7K -21.87 5,266.5M
AMD 85.54 50,116.7K -8.35 4,286.9M
FB 272.94 12,963.6K -38.52 3,538.3M
** % change here refers to volume vs. 20 days average volume.

TOP 5 BLOCK ORDERS

TICKER PRICE/STRIKE TYPE VOL/OI FUNDS FLOW
GILD 60.63/57.00 stock options/put 92.43 456.2M
GB 1.3262/1.2700 FX options/put 11,425 1.6M
CL 41.50 – 41.83 crude oil futures 680 28.3M
GC 1,855.50-1,868.00 gold futures 475 88.3M
ZB 173.02 – 174.07 US bond futures 8,990 155,738.3M

OUR PICK – NZD/CAD

Hope lift kiwi while fear suppress loonie. Market is at a juncture of hope in a tug of war between fear and greed. Vaccine hopes continue to lift kiwi more than it lift loonie as the currency is affected by oil demand that is seen weak during lockdowns. However, kiwi that is affected by milk prices would continue to be in demand regardless. In such a state, we see higher NZD/CAD in the coming weeks. Buy on dip is our preferred strategy while 50% retracement of 2016 high to 2020 low (0.8970) remains pivot, targeting 0.92 and 0.9280 in extension. The pair has not make any pullback this week, so below 0.8970 look for a retest of the 0.8880 area.

HORIZON STRATEGY SL TP1 TP2
Short-Term Buy 0.9020 0.9080 0.9100
Medium-Term Buy 0.8970 0.9120 0.9200
Long-Term Flat

 

Disclaimer:

This article is for general information purpose only. It is not an investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Opinions expressed are of the authors and not necessarily of MFM Securities Limited or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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