Note: The S/R levels (i.e. likely bank trader order levels) as depicted in their respective timeframes in this and prior articles have not changed, and will probably NEVER change regardless what happens in financial markets. What follows is my own world view, developed from an institutional trading career dating back to 1995.
Today is NFP day and this is where we’re at: US jobless rate has been at 4 percent or below for over a year. The rolling annual growth in average hourly earnings has been over 3% for the last 3 quarters, and that’s above inflation.
US businesses are worried about Trump’s tariffs, but their biggest worry (it seems) is finding able workers. So this is supposed to mean the job market is “good”, right?
Many in the markets expect the job market is a little toppish and is due for a correction, especially when business investment seems to be spiraling down. Confusingly, consumer spending still remains supportive.
And then there’s the equally confusing punditry surrounding the Fed’s motivations in “only” cutting 25bp in the overnight funds rate.
And finally, we see Trump hitting US importers (not China) with more tariffs on China imports, slowing down the dollar’s bid against the majors.
I’m not going to confuse myself in trying to predict central banker or presidential motives. I’ll focus on what I see is happening in the charts.
The following are my S/R levels going into the NFP tonight.