Note: The S/R levels (i.e. likely bank trader order levels) as depicted in their respective timeframes in this and prior articles have not changed, and will likely NEVER change regardless what happens in financial markets. What follows is my own world view, developed from an institutional trading career dating back to 1995.
Trump is on the warpath… or should I say Tweetpath.
I’ve been away for a while. So here’s where we’re at.
Sino-US trade war is still simmering. Trump threatens more tariffs on China imports if he can’t make progress with President Xi Jinping at the G20 summit circa 28-29 June.
The US (i.e. Trump) walked back recent tariff threats on Mexico. The whole thing was over so many non-issues, it didn’t really matter.
Recent US jobs data increased expectations the Fed will cut interest rates. I think they’ll cut, but whether or not they do won’t matter either if you left your stops using our S/R levels.
The FOMC meets next week.
Back to the analysis that does matter…
In the medium term outlook, the euro is within sight of the familiar 1.1380 pivot. Intraday, however, EURUSD looks stuck above 1.1300 until something happens.
Cable is held around a 1.2700. In times of uncertainty, it always helps to anchor to a known pivot, or at least to a typical round number target.
The Aussie is showing all signs of following thru with a move downwards. Daytraders might want to wait for the 69.45 floor to clear convincingly first before selling on pullbacks. Scalpers can probably already sell pullbacks to 69.50 cents.
USDJPY looks bid; 109 yen should cap, otherwise the dollar may just range around 108.55 in the meantime.
Gold is expected to remain anchored to 1330 for a while.